Everyone (and here I am referring to the State, represented especially by the Minister of Education; to higher education institutions – HEIs and their rectors; to associations – such as ACIET; and, in general, to public opinion interested in the sector) we expect coverage, or enrollment rates, in higher education to continue to grow. While more compatriots have access to post-secondary training, national productivity will increase and qualify; the rates of return of the population will improve and, with it, the taxation for social investment; and the so-called externalities, or indirect effects felt by all in the medium and long term (such as, for example, the decrease in social conflicts and the greater sensitivity around crucial issues for the planet), will increase in favor of a better society’s standard of living.

But what if the hedge backs down or stalls? Although Colombia has experienced significant progress on the subject, there are many gray clouds that are drawing a not very optimistic outlook. The background is positive, but the current reality is of little help. Let’s see:

We must positively acknowledge that the commitment to the massification of higher education in Colombia has overcome multiple technical, political, ideological and financial discussions. The global debate and the bets for education to be considered a universal right have contributed to significantly increasing said coverage. In favor of the last governments (of one and another political tendency) it must be said that allowing private HEIs to help complement the official offer, that Icetex diversifies with very different modalities and financing options, that governments and municipalities have become sensitized to sponsor the study of its young people, and that national programs such as Ser Pilo Paga, Generación E and Matrícula Cero have appeared, have been key to increasing coverage. So far in the current century, there have been 40 percentage points (from 13.82% in the year 2000 to 53.9% in 2021).

Although it can be thought that with a coverage of 53.9% there is still a lot to grow, the figures also show that since 2016, when Colombia exceeded 50% for the first time, it has fluctuated between 51.2% and 53.9 %, and it seems to be giving what in financial terms is called a resistance to exceed that ceiling; that is, to keep going up.

The National Government, through its Minister of Education, Alejandro Gaviria, has announced the intention to increase coverage by 500 thousand new students in the four years of the administration of President Gustavo Petro Urrego, which would put it in the order of 65 % (still being below the average of the OECD countries, which is over 70%). But despite the hopeful announcement, the macro indicators are sending worrying signals that could threaten growth in enrollment: consequences of the pandemic, still in force, on employment and on the dedication of young people to study; runaway inflation; outflow of foreign investment capital from the country, and slowdown in the salaries of university professionals (the minister himself has said, very worryingly, that close to 30% of higher education programs do not present positive rates of return), not They are showing an optimistic outlook.

Likewise, it should be considered that we do not have, as an educational sector, a clear public policy strategy to favorably direct the offer of foreign HEIs that, without control, are arriving virtually in the country; and that there is also no clarity for the offer of informal programs, online and free courses, by agents outside the radar of the Ministry of Education itself, with the consequent lack of understanding on the part of students and families of their real benefits and even their legality . In addition, we cannot ignore that the government culture of financially subsidizing very diverse marginal sectors of society, including young people who neither study nor work (“Ninis”), for various reasons, goes against the traditional message of the need to study. to grow in every way.

Until now, the Government’s free policy has focused on subsidizing the enrollment of students from strata 1, 2 and 3 in the official HEIs, which have pointed out their infrastructure limitations and capacity to grow in the volume desired by the minister. The vice rectors of the technical commission of the SUE State University System themselves warned the Ministry and the Congress of the Republic, in a public hearing last October, that public universities could only grow by 100,000 places in the next 8 years. That is to say, if the government wants to fulfill its commitments, it must specify, as soon as possible, support for students in private HEIs (in a similar way to what has happened in the basic and secondary levels). Minister Gaviria has said it on several occasions. It would be good to specify it immediately so as not to lose applicants in the first semester of 2023, and to subsidize students who do not achieve a place in public education.

In this way, it will not only help to reduce the worrying numbers of «Ninis» (which, according to the National Administrative Department of Statistics – DANE – exceed 3 million young people between 15 and 28 years of age), but will also address the constitutional commitment of the State to provide educational opportunities to the entire population and it will be possible to prevent some private HEIs from ceasing to operate, given the impossibility of offering academic programs with high tuition fees (whatever it may be) compared to the free model of public HEIs .

Otherwise, if the outlook remains as it is today, in terms of economic sustainability, many private HEIs could have a dark year 2023. It is worth remembering that since 2017 the national coverage rate has gradually decreased, and last year it rose again thanks to the gratuity given by the State to public HEIs, but that the private ones, in addition to seeing their finances affected by the reduction in the number of students, with the pandemic they had to dip into their savings, which they froze and some lowered enrollment in various periods, that the calculation of enrollment for 2022 was made based on a CPI of 5.6% while the minimum wage increased by 10.07%, and that the worrying high inflation so far in 2022 (currently in the 12%), worryingly widens the economic gap between free tuition and the tuition that current and future students must pay in private HEIs.

The consequences could be very serious, not only because of the greater dropout -read social frustration- of students from private HEIs, but also because the necessary operating conditions and the commitment to quality, accreditation, well-being, internationalization and inclusion could be affected. that the higher education system has been demanding.

Once again, Minister Alejandro Gaviria, you have the technical capacity, will and infrastructure of the Colombian Association of Higher Education Institutions ACIET, so that you can act on time and we do not have to regret it.

Hugo Alberto Valencia Porras
National President of ACIET
Rector of the María Cano University Foundation